Vortex works!

Our service runs state-of-the-art atmospheric models. However, as you may have experienced, real world's wind behavior is often very complex.

That is why Vortex offers you the possibility of performing a quantitative check of the accuracy of our simulations by comparing them against your own wind measurements.

See below for the results of such a comparison, which has been conducted continuously since August 2009 thanks to the feedback of our users. Their conclusion: "Vortex is accurate enough to be useful".

Accuracy

Vortex comparison checkpoints around the globe (MASTs orange, FARMs blue)

On-going validation exercise

Since August 2009, Vortex service has been continuously tested in order to determine its accuracy and usefulness as perceived by wind industry professionals. The procedure is simple: users order MASTs (and some FARMs) at locations where they have their own met. masts installed, and confidentially (no information is sent to us) compare our model results against their measured data. Afterwards, they are requested to fill out a survey to provide their opinion on the degree of correlation between our model results and their actual data.

Survey results (at June 2010)

The following plots show current values of users comparisons for mean and extreme wind speeds at nearly 100 checkpoints around the globe.

Accuracy_Mean
Accuracy_Vref

You may think that there are not so many points on these graphs, but this is on purpose: we only take into account comparisons provided by our wind professional users (Iberdrola, Acciona, Gamesa, Alstom, etc.), which ensures their measurements are reliable. It is true that there are many other sources of public data, however many do not meet the minimum requirements of the wind industry. Using such unreliable information would only introduce noise into the comparison.

Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for mean and extreme (Vref) speeds are respectively:

Mean0.47 m/s6.9 %
Vref3.31 m/s9.0 %

Users are requested also to opine about the following:

MAE mean
Agreement Histogram
Agreement Rose

Vortex products have been tested by dozens of wind professionals in order to determine their usefulness. However, the most important of this validation exercise is what is not yet there: your data. And you can include them! Since Vortex MAST provides short-term wind statistics (of 1 actual year: 2007, 2008, 2009), it is directly comparable against your measurements meaning that you can check the reliability of our system without intermediates.